I know that the analysts are all down on MoviePass, saying it’ll die by the end of summer. I know the stock of its parent company HMNY has tanked and investors are having trouble finding enough shares to short. But I love MoviePass, and I wonder how many other users are like me.
Before MoviePass, I would see maybe 1 movie a year in theaters. A blockbuster like the latest Bond film. I never ever bought concessions because the ticket price was already over $10. I only watched big-budget films with action scenes that would make it “worth it” to watch in a theater.
Now, I see movies 3-4 times a week. I buy popcorn about half the time because the ticket was “free.” And I’ll watch anything, even indie films I’m not sure I’ll like.
AMC has “no intention” of sharing profits with MoviePass. If all large theater chains decide the same, the analysts will probably be right about MoviePass dying soon. But AMC would be making a mistake. Even if they give up 20% of ticket sales and concessions to MoviePass, they’re still making 80% on my activities. Let’s make a conservative estimate that I go to AMC theaters twice a week and buy a large popcorn every other time with MoviePass. Then over the course of a year, they’re making about $1600 (80% of $2000) from my activities. Versus my previous habits, where they’d be making about $15 a year (100% of $15). That’s more than 2 orders of magnitude.
If MoviePass goes bankrupt, it will have been a good run. But theater chains shouldn’t fantasize that customers like me will continue going to movies several times a week and buying the same amount of concessions without MoviePass. It won’t happen. I’ll go back to my old habits without MoviePass because movie ticket prices are a poor value proposition for me.
I can’t be all that rare. MoviePass only had about 20,000 subscribers before its price drop from $30/month to $9.95/month. Now it’s on track to get over 3 million by August. How many new users are like me? If there are enough of us, maybe we can make the case to AMC and other chains that they want to work with MoviePass before it’s too late!